[dropcap]W[/dropcap]e are surprised that some people are questioning President Buhari’s decision to seek re-election. I have always maintained that it will be unthinkable for any President of the country to forgo the opportunity of seeking re-election – even if that President is in coma. Aside from the natural allure of power, in our type of society, the office of President is by definition bigger than its occupant such that the decision on whether to seek for a second term or not is bigger than the occupant of that office. Once in office, a President will realize – or it will be drummed into his ears – that he is merely the person chosen by providence to represent certain primordial groups’ turn in holding that office. Add to this, the hangers-on and system beneficiaries whose livelihoods depend on the President continuing in office! For instance before the gravely sick Yaradua died in 2010, there were already groups campaigning for his re-election, and arguing that his health challenges would be no impediment to his performance.
This will partly depend on one’s location in the country’s fault lines and one’s stand in the active controversies of the day. The truth is that the idea of ‘performance’ in office is highly subjective. For instance while critics can accuse the Buhari government of not having started and completed any infrastructure project since it came to office, supporters will see it as evidence that Buhari sees government as a continuum and did not want to jettison “uncompleted and abandoned” projects he inherited from his predecessors just to embark on vainglorious projects of his own. In essence, while critics can mention a thousand reasons why Buhari does not deserve re-election, his supporters can mention as many reasons why they feel that Buhari is the best thing that has happened to the country since the invention of egusi soup, amala or tuwon shinkafa. I have argued elsewhere that those who feel that the election will be won or lost on the basis of Buhari’s performance or non-performance in office have a lot to learn about elections in societies like ours. Several variables will interact – including our identity politics, who Buhari’s key opponents are, the attitude of leading foreign powers to the various candidates and other unknowable intervening variables- to determine who wins in 2019.
The games politicians play
Buhari and his strategists realize that they need a good outing in the South-west, which, as in 2015, will be the battle ground in 2019, if he hopes to win re-election. This calculation means that Bola Tinubu, once thought to be marginalized after the 2015 elections, is now being courted like a beautiful bride by the presidency. And Tinubu appears to be enjoying the attention (of course his options are limited). But in courting Tinubu, Buhari seems to face the Devil’s Alternative: though no one really knows Tinubu’s true electoral value in the South-west, a perception that he was used and dumped or treated shabbily will draw sympathies for him in the region and evoke memories of how some people from the region felt the late Chief Awolowo was shabbily treated after helping the Federal side to win the Biafran war. On the other hand, courting Tinubu and throwing the APC’s national Chairman Chief John Odigie- Oyegun under the buswill equally draw sympathies for him and alienate the anti-Tinubu forces loyal to him in both the South-west and outside it.
I think Buhari has been trying to balance the two options: the way he came against the ‘tenure elongation’ of the Oyegun-led National Working Committee (apparently without first taking them into confidence) was clearly aimed at placating Tinubu, who seems to be in Cold War with the APC National Chairman. On the other hand by pleading at the recently concluded National Executive Committee meeting of the party for waivers to be granted to members of the National Working Committee who wanted to re-contest, Buhari seemed to be also trying to mollify Oyegun and his loyalists.
The danger in playing this sort of games for Buhari however is that he can end up alienating both sides and some may choose to undermine his second term ambition secretly – even if they are officially drumming support for him.
There are conflicting factions within the party. It is difficult to see how the interests can be reconciled before the elections. All these taken together compels the emergence of a third party. Personally, that is what I will wish for Nigeria. The PDP haS lost a lot of appeal from Nigerians. The PDP has been seen as a big disappointment for sixteen years. I don’t see how it can positively transform that image between now and the next election. The PDP, even with the baggage of what it acquired when it was in power, was trending towards this general idea that the party in opposition is always the ideal, in other words, you promise everything that the party in power cannot do, which was what the APC did in 2015. The PDP was looking good going forward until it shot itself in the foot. The defection of Atiku to the PDP has long been foretold. He too is a damaged good. The magnitude and scope of the failure of the PDP government maximize the odds of defection from the party in the run-up to the elections. There is, of course, also an element of opportunism in jumping from one party to the other. Realistically, Atiku has the wherewithal financially and viable network to competitively vie for the presidency but if it comes down to a choice being between him and President Buhari, I think the president will carry the day. However, his coming to the PDP is an asset. The party will need the additional strength it brings in terms of financial and structural support. It does not mean he will emerge as the candidate of the party but he is a potential candidate for the party. He still has to go through the rigours of party primaries. The greatest obstacle he has is that there are formidable stakeholders and game changers in the system such as Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and Buhari himself, etc, who cannot countenance him as a potential president. That is an albatross for him. How he is going to contend and grapple with that challenge remains to be seen. It is a big and formidable challenge.Lets give President Buhari another chance to fulfill his promises.
Grassroots Publishers